DeriveDeribit
These are the 0 Derive traders with the best track record we can measure, out of 0 who qualify. "Best" here means they made money steadily over the last 90 days, not that they had one big win.
| Wallet | Style | Score | Sortino | 90d PnL | Return on gross | Max DD | + weeks | Days | Persist | Follow 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No wallets currently qualify for this ranking. | ||||||||||
1. We rebuild their whole book. Every trade on Derive is public. We replay each wallet's trades day by day, so we know what they held, what they paid, and what it is worth now. Profit counts whether they have closed the trade or are still sitting in it.
2. We score consistency, not size. A wallet that makes a little most weeks with small dips ranks above one that made more with a wild ride. The number for that is the Sortino ratio: average daily profit divided by how bad the losing days were. Higher is steadier. The score flattens out at high Sortinos and is scaled down for short histories and small books, so tiny accounts with two lucky days can't top the list.
3. We check whether it lasts. We rank everyone on the first half of the 90 days and then look at what they did in the second half. If a wallet was near the top early and kept making money later, it gets a bonus and a "yes" under Persist.
4. We throw out market makers. Wallets registered in Derive's maker programs are excluded outright, and so are wallets that quote both sides of the same contract within seconds. Their profit is a fee for providing liquidity, not a view on the market.
5. We keep the top quarter. Of wallets that made at least $5k over the 90 days and traded in the last two weeks, the top quarter by score make the list (up to at least ten when enough wallets qualify). Then we add up what they hold, to see where the best traders on the exchange are positioned right now.
We ranked every wallet on days 1 to 45, then checked days 46 to 90. If the ranking meant nothing, the top 10% would do no better than everyone else afterwards. The more they beat the crowd, the more this list is worth following.
Verdict
skill shows
How much early rank predicts later profit
0.25
Top 10% still profitable later
35%
Everyone profitable later
24%
Plain reading: of the wallets that looked best in the first half, 35% went on to make money in the second half, compared with 24% of all wallets. The rank correlation runs from −1 (reversed ranking), through 0 (no monotonic relationship), to +1 (matching ranking). The observed value is 0.25; it describes this historical sample, not future returns. 2017 wallets tested, split at 2026-09-07, recomputed hourly.
Delta $ is the group's net bet in dollar terms: positive means they profit if the price rises, negative if it falls. Vega $/pt is their exposure to volatility: positive means they win if markets get wilder, negative means they are collecting premium and want things calm. Gross is the total size of everything they hold.
| Asset | Delta $ | Vega $/pt | Gross |
|---|---|---|---|
| No reconstructed positions available. | |||
The same bets split by option expiry date, with the biggest net positions in each. A plus number is contracts held long, a minus is contracts sold short. This is where you see the actual trades: for example, a large minus on a far-out call means they are selling upside to collect premium.
| Expiry | Delta $ | Vega $/pt | Wallets | Largest nets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No expiry positions available. | ||||
| Time | Wallet | Instrument | Side | Size | Price | Notional |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No recent fills for the qualifying wallets. | ||||||
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