DeriveDeribit
Trade on DeriveBTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and HYPE options are priced for less movement than the market has actually delivered this month. The steadiest traders on the exchange are net short $857.2K of ETH delta. Updated 03:40 UTC; refreshes every five minutes.
Each idea is recorded the first time it fires and marked at the current mid every 15 minutes; expired legs settle at intrinsic. Return is per unit of the structure as a share of the entry cost, before fees. Ideas open for less than a day are not scored yet.
Sell 1× BTC 70k put, 2 Oct 26.
KoolKrypto (@koolkrypto223), a wallet we follow, collected $32k for 50 of them on Derive by RFQ (sell BTC 70k put, 2 Oct 26) with BTC at $75,978. Large active book, about $1B notional and +$8M realized a month. Explained the ETH March-27 call-spread thesis on X on 11 Sep 2026.
Rule: Followed wallet traded $3.80M notional, 2026-09-15 15:04 UTC.
Buy the 25 Sep 1.3 straddle on Derive.
XRP has moved at 100% annualised over the last month (94% over the last week), but options are only pricing 58%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.
Rule: Implied 58% vs realized 100%, ratio 0.58 (rule fires below 0.85).
Sell the 17 Sep 77k call on Derive.
$66.45M of open interest sits at 77k (mostly calls), 1.0% above spot, expiring in 1.2 days. Dealers hedging that strike sell as price approaches it from below and buy as it approaches from above, which tends to pin price near it into expiry.
Rule: Largest open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry: 872 contracts.
Buy the 17 Sep 2.4k/2.5k call spread on Derive.
Max pain is the expiry price at which option holders collectively lose the most. For 17 Sep it is $2,480, against spot at $2,402. Price often drifts toward it in the last days as hedges unwind; a tendency, not a rule.
Rule: Max pain $2,480 vs spot $2,402, gap 3.2% (rule fires beyond 1.5%).
Buy the 25 Sep 2.4k straddle on Deribit.
ETH has moved at 73% annualised over the last month (49% over the last week), but options are only pricing 51%. When the market moves more than options price in, owning options pays.
Rule: Implied 51% vs realized 73%, ratio 0.70 (rule fires below 0.85).
The same option on Derive and Deribit is quoted within fees of each other on every contract we can match, or the gap is under a dollar a contract. That is the normal state; edges appear briefly when one book lags. Arb scanner.
Implied is the at-the-money vol interpolated to 30 days from the live chain; realized is the annualised standard deviation of daily index moves over the last 30 days. Below 0.85× we call options cheap, above 1.25× expensive. Smart money is the top quarter of wallets by risk-adjusted 90-day results, among those that made at least $5k and traded in the last two weeks, with market makers removed; the bar under each asset is their net delta as a share of their gross book. The wall is the strike with the most open interest within 5% of spot on the nearest expiry. Ideas are generated by fixed rules from these numbers, not by a person or a model; payoff diagrams are per unit at expiry and ignore fees. Notable trades are ranked by size against the wallet's usual size, distance from spot, smart-money or followed status, price versus Deribit's mark, and package legs. Alerts are aggressor fills over $250k notional in options (with at least $2k premium) or $1M in perps, over $50k by a smart-money wallet, or over $10k by a wallet we follow by hand; market makers are left out of the whale rows. The same rules feed the Telegram alerts.